EV Estimates

There are a variety of estimates for how many electric vehicles (EVs) will be on the road in the United States by 2030:

  • BloombergNEF: 31 million EVs on US roads by 2030
  • IHS Markit: Between 12.2-41.3 million EVs on US roads by 2030
  • Energy Innovation: 35 million EVs on US roads by 2030
  • Wood Mackenzie: 30 million EVs on US roads by 2030
  • Boston Consulting Group: 25 million EVs on US roads by 2030

The Biden administration has set a goal of 50% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030, which would translate to tens of millions of EVs on the road by that time. However, some analysts think that goal is optimistic.

Key factors affecting EV adoption will be battery costs, charging infrastructure expansion, consumer preferences, government policy and regulation, and overall vehicle production capacity.


In summary, most credible estimates forecast between 25-35 million EVs on American roads by 2030. However, some estimates range as high as 40-50 million if EV adoption accelerates rapidly. The actual outcome will ultimately depend on how quickly various barriers to adoption are addressed.


According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there are currently over 50,000 public electric vehicle charging stations in the United States. Here are some key statistics on U.S. EV charging infrastructure:


  • There are more than 135,000 individual public EV charging ports/outlets available.
  • The ports are spread across over 50,000 charging stations nationwide.
  • This includes over 8,000 direct current fast charging ports that can charge an EV battery much more quickly.
  • California has the most charging stations of any state, with over 19,000 ports at over 5,500 stations.
  • Other leading states include New York, Florida, Texas and Washington.
  • Most public charging stations are Level 2 chargers that take 4-8 hours for a full charge.
  • Growth has been rapid, with over 80% added in the last 5 years.
  • Various estimates project the U.S. will need 2-10 million public charging ports to support projected EV growth through 2030.

So in summary, the current U.S. public EV charging infrastructure stands at over 50,000 stations and 135,000 ports, up significantly in recent years but still likely to require major expansion to support mainstream EV adoption in the coming decade.


Power Requirements


  • There are around 280 million ICE vehicles in the US currently
  • Replacing 140 million of them with EVs (50% of the fleet)
  • Assuming average EV energy consumption of 0.3 kWh per mile
  • And an average annual mileage of 12,000 miles per vehicle
  • The 140 million EVs would need 140 million * 12,000 miles * 0.3 kWh/mile = 504 billion kWh of additional electricity per year
  • Currently, around 4.1 trillion kWh of electricity are generated in the US per year
  • So switching 50% of the 280 million ICE vehicles (140 million) to EVs would require approximately 12% more electricity generation per year.
  • 504 billion kWh of additional generation needed / 4.1 trillion kWh currently generated = 12.3% more

To summarize, very roughly switching 50% of the current US ICE fleet to EVs could require around 500 billion more kWh of electricity generation per year, or approximately 12% more than the current total US electricity generation.


This estimate assumes averages for EV efficiency and annual mileage. The actual impact could vary significantly based on the mix of EV models, driving patterns, charging behavior, and future improvements in EV energy efficiency. But it provides a rough approximation of the potential increase in electricity demand.


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